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How to trade CPI on EUR/USD

CPI moves EUR/USD more than almost any other release. The traders who do well on CPI day aren't faster; they planned the outcomes before the number landed.

Updated 18 October 2026 · 2 min read

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In short: the day before, open Before the Print to see what a soft, in-line, hot and much hotter CPI would each do to EUR/USD. Stay flat through the release. Afterwards, check whether the move is following through or fading before you trade it.

Before the print: decide in advance

  1. Open Before the Print and pick US CPI from this week's releases.
  2. Read the four outcomes. For each one you'll see the print it assumes, which way EUR/USD has tended to move, and roughly how far once enough past releases are recorded.
  3. Check what it means for the Fed. The card shows what's priced for the next meeting and how much it would take to change that. A print that flips the Fed's next move is the one that trends; one that doesn't usually gets faded.
  4. Write your plan. "If hot, I look for shorts below this level. If soft, I look for longs above that one. If in line, I do nothing." Use Next-Day Levels for the levels.

During the print: stay out

The event bar at the top of every page counts down to the release and turns red in the last fifteen minutes. That's the signal to stop opening new trades. Spreads widen, stops get hunted, and the first spike often goes the wrong way.

After the print: trade the follow-through, not the spike

Once the number lands, the bar stays lit for the drift window: the couple of hours in which the move either extends or fades. Tap it, and SILICON shows whether price is following the surprise or giving it back.

  • Following through: the surprise is being repriced. Your pre-written plan is live; look for an entry at a level, not a chase.
  • Fading: the market had it priced in. Don't fight it, and don't trade your plan just because you wrote it.

The same playbook works for

NFP, PCE, retail sales and central bank decisions. The pair changes, the routine doesn't: map the outcomes, sit out the spike, trade only what follows through.

FAQ

Which way does EUR/USD move on a hot CPI?

Usually down. A hotter-than-expected US inflation print tends to lift the dollar, which pushes EUR/USD lower. A soft print tends to do the opposite. Before the Print shows how your pair has reacted to past surprises.

Should I trade the first minute after CPI?

Most traders shouldn't. Spreads are widest and the first move often reverses. Waiting for the dust to settle and trading the follow-through is usually the better risk.

What if the market already priced it in?

Then the move fades. That's exactly what the drift check after the release tells you: whether the move is following through or fading.

See today's read on your pair. Ask SILICON what's driving the market you trade.

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Trading leveraged products such as forex and CFDs carries a high risk of loss. SILICON provides analysis and education, not financial advice. Past results do not guarantee future results.