How to
How to trade the move after the news (not the spike)
The spike after a big release gets all the attention. The money is usually in the hours after it, when the market decides whether the number really changes anything.
In short: skip the first minutes. When the event bar shows "drift window open", tap it. SILICON shows whether the move is following the surprise or fading it. Trade the follow-through at a level; stand aside on a fade.
Why the spike is a bad trade
In the first minutes after a release, spreads are at their widest, liquidity is thin, and the first move often reverses as big orders get filled. You're paying the most to trade the least reliable part of the move.
What happens next is the trade
After the knee-jerk, the market makes up its mind. If the surprise genuinely changes the outlook, for example a hot inflation print that shifts what the central bank will do, price keeps drifting the same way. If the market had already priced it, price gives the move back.
How to use it in SILICON
- Watch the event bar. It's on every page. After a key release it turns to your brand-yellow "drift window open" state instead of going quiet.
- Tap through to the drift check. It opens on the latest release that moves your pair and shows the surprise, the first move, and whether what came after extended it or gave it back.
- If it's following through, look for an entry on a pullback to one of the day's levels, in the direction of the surprise.
- If it's fading, stand aside. A fade after a big surprise is the market telling you it disagrees.
It gets sharper over time
Every release your pair goes through is graded and kept. Over time SILICON builds a record of how often each kind of surprise followed through for that pair. Until there are enough releases for that record to mean something, it says so plainly instead of showing a number.
FAQ
What is post-news drift?
After a surprise, price often keeps moving in the direction of the surprise for hours as the market reprices. Traders call it drift. Sometimes the opposite happens and the move fades.
Which releases does this work on?
The big recurring ones: CPI, NFP, central bank decisions, PCE, GDP, jobless claims and the main UK and euro area releases.
How long is the drift window?
About two hours after the print is when the follow-through or the fade usually shows itself. SILICON keeps the release on the event bar for that window.
See today's read on your pair. Ask SILICON what's driving the market you trade.
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Trading leveraged products such as forex and CFDs carries a high risk of loss. SILICON provides analysis and education, not financial advice. Past results do not guarantee future results.